The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
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Strategic foresight/scenario building
Reports
Publication's description
Europe needs more workers in many jobs. How will this affect EURES, the network of European employment services, in the future? The European Labour Authority (ELA) asked some experts to imagine different scenarios for 2030. By Spring 2024 they explored how labour market imbalances might develop and its impact on EURES. Based on a list of factors, and hypotheses, the experts built a set of nine scenarios. Just below you can find the factors mapped according to their importance and level of certainty.
Publication's documents
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Strategic foresight summary report
Factors affecting the labour market
The experts identified eight factors as the most influential and least predictable when it comes to the development of labour shortages and surpluses in Europe. Each factor is described in more detail when clicking on thelinks below, including a definition, description and future outlook.
Potential future scenarios
By combining hypotheses about the developments of each factor, the experts developed nine scenarios about how the future might look like. Decision-makers are encouraged to get inspiration from the scenarios when designing and planning their activities and consider what could be done to realise a potential positive future while avoiding a negative one.
Click on the links below and find out the full ‘story’ of each scenario, including its expected impact on labour shortages and surpluses as well as on EURES services.
The combinations between factors and scenarios offer more precise insights.
Low-skilled workers falling behind in an adaptive labour market
- Employment and work aspects of technological advancements: automation follows its existing trajectory
- Technology as matchmaker: Dominance of PES services, supported by technological solutions
- Short-term/cyclical economic developments: Coping with the aftermath
- Climate change and greening: Ongoing adverse effects of climate change
- Jobseekers’ preferences: Jobseekers’ adoption of employers’ preferences
- Job quality and working conditions: Post-industrial Taylorism
- Education and training gaps: Selective skills provision
- Housing market and policy: Persistent unaffordability and unavailability of housing
Mismatches and inequalities in an active twin transition
- Employment and work aspects of technological advancements: Automation follows its existing trajectory
- Technology as matchmaker: Dominance of PES services, supported by technological solutions
- Short-term/cyclical economic developments: Coping with the aftermath
- Climate change and greening: Successful adaptation, failure in mitigation
- Jobseekers’ preferences: Market adoption of jobseekers’ preferences
- Job quality and working conditions: Post-industrial Taylorism
- Education and training gaps: The skills agenda widely realised
- Housing market and policy: Increased availability of housing
The EU looking for home and belonging
- Employment and work aspects of technological advancements: Automation follows its existing trajectory
- Technology as matchmaker: Dominance of PES services, supported by technological solutions
- Short-term/cyclical economic developments: Coping with the aftermath
- Climate change and greening: Successful adaptation, failure in mitigation
- Jobseekers’ preferences: Market adoption of jobseekers’ preferences
- Job quality and working conditions: Post-industrial Taylorism
- Education and training gaps: The skills agenda widely realised
- Housing market and policy: Increased availability of housing
The gloom and doom
- Employment and work aspects of technological advancements: The diffusion of AI increases
- Technology as matchmaker: Machine-dominated self-service provision
- Short-term/cyclical economic developments: A continuous state of perma- and polycrisis
- Climate change and greening: Ongoing adverse effects of climate change
- Jobseekers’ preferences: Mismatch of employers’ and jobseekers’ preferences
- Job quality and working conditions: Up-lift job quality and working conditions
- Education and training gaps: Selective skills provision
- Housing market and policy: Increased availability of housing
Stronger PES and EURES cooperation in an unpredictable environment
- Employment and work aspects of technological advancements: The diffusion of AI increases
- Technology as matchmaker: Dominance of PES services, supported by technological solutions
- Short-term/cyclical economic developments: A continuous state of perma- and polycrisis
- Climate change and greening: Successful adaptation, failure in mitigation
- Jobseekers’ preferences: Mismatch of employers’ and jobseekers’ preferences
- Job quality and working conditions: Post-industrial Taylorism
- Education and training gaps: Slow and modest adaptation
- Housing market and policy: Social housing policies and renovation wave
Labour market in times of crisis
- Employment and work aspects of technological advancements: The diffusion of AI increases
- Technology as matchmaker: Prominent role of private service providers
- Short-term/cyclical economic developments: A continuous state of perma- and polycrisis
- Climate change and greening: Successful adaptation, failure in mitigation
- Jobseekers’ preferences: Mismatch of employers’ and jobseekers’ preferences
- Job quality and working conditions: Up-lift job quality and working conditions
- Education and training gaps: Slow and modest adaptation
- Housing market and policy: Persistent unaffordability and unavailability of housing
Digitalisation at its worst
- Employment and work aspects of technological advancements: Increasing customisation of work of work and employment
- Technology as matchmaker: Machine-dominated self-service provision
- Short-term/cyclical economic developments: Coping with the aftermath
- Climate change and greening: Successful adaptation, failure in mitigation
- Jobseekers’ preferences: Jobseekers’ adoption of employers’ preferences
- Job quality and working conditions: Post-industrial Taylorism
- Education and training gaps: Slow and modest adaptation
- Housing market and policy: Persistent unaffordability and unavailability of housing
Proactive and effective policies
- Employment and work aspects of technological advancements: Automation follows its existing trajectory
- Technology as matchmaker: Dominance of PES services, supported by technological solutions
- Short-term/cyclical economic developments: Coping with the aftermath
- Climate change and greening: Climate policies and green transition
- Jobseekers’ preferences: Jobseekers’ adoption of employers’ preferences
- Job quality and working conditions: Up-lift job quality and working conditions
- Education and training gaps: The skills agenda widely realised
- Housing market and policy: Social housing policies and renovation wave
Ongoing crises: no satisfactory solution for the labour market
- Employment and work aspects of technological advancements: The diffusion of AI increases
- Technology as matchmaker: Prominent role of private service providers
- Short-term/cyclical economic developments: A continuous state of perma- and polycrisis
- Climate change and greening: Ongoing adverse effects of climate change Selective skills provision
- Jobseekers’ preferences: Jobseekers’ adoption of employers’ preferences
- Job quality and working conditions: Post-industrial Taylorism
- Education and training gaps: Slow and modest adaptation
- Housing market and policy: Persistent unaffordability and unavailability of housing
Drivers
Driver 1 - Strategic foresight report: Employment and work aspects of technological advancements
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Driver 2 - Strategic foresight report: Technology as Matchmaker
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Driver 3 - Strategic foresight report: Short-term/cyclical economic developments
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Driver 4 - Strategic foresight report: Jobseekers’ preferences
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Driver 5 - Strategic foresight report: Housing market and policy
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Driver 6 - Strategic foresight report: Job quality and working conditions
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Driver 7 - Strategic foresight report: Climate change and greening
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Driver 8 - Strategic foresight report: Education and training gaps
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Scenarios
Scenario 1 - Strategic foresight report: Low-skilled workers falling behind in an adaptive labour market
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Scenario 2 - Strategic foresight report: Mismatches and inequalities in an active twin transition
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Scenario 3 - Strategic foresight report: The EU looking for home and belonging
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Scenario 4 - Strategic foresight report: The gloom and doom
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Scenario 5 - Strategic foresight report: Stronger PES and EURES cooperation in an unpredictable environment
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Scenario 6 - Strategic foresight report: Labour market in times of crisis
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Scenario 7 - Strategic foresight report: Digitalisation at its worst
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Scenario 8 - Strategic foresight report: Proactive and effective policies
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030
Scenario 9 - Strategic foresight report: Ongoing crises: no satisfactory solution for the labour market
The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030