## [The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030](/en/publications/impact-labour-shortages-and-surpluses-eures-services-2030) ## Publication's description Europe needs more workers in many jobs. How will this affect EURES, the network of European employment services, in the future? The European Labour Authority (ELA) asked some experts to imagine different scenarios for 2030. By Spring 2024 they explored how labour market imbalances might develop and its impact on EURES. Based on a list of factors, and hypotheses, the experts built a set of nine scenarios. Just below you can find the factors mapped according to their importance and level of certainty. ![chart](/sites/default/files/styles/ela_ckeditor_media_upload_966_600/public/2024-11/2024_13_11_T13_StrategicForesightSummary_Chart.jpg?itok=hDU0fOdK) Publication's documents The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030 Strategic foresight summary report English (1.34 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2024-12/2024_04_12_T13_EURES_StrategicForesightSummary_WEB.pdf) Glossary - Strategic foresight report The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030 English (256.11 KB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-01/ela-strategic-foresight-report-glossary.pdf) ## Factors affecting the labour market The experts identified eight factors as the most influential and least predictable when it comes to the development of labour shortages and surpluses in Europe. Each factor is described in more detail when clicking on thelinks below, including a definition, description and future outlook. - [**Employment and work aspects of technological advancements**](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_1.PDF "Driver 1 - Strategic foresight report: Employment and work aspects of technological advancements") - [**Technology as matchmaker**](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_2.PDF "Driver 2 - Strategic foresight report: Technology as Matchmaker") - [**Short-term/cyclical economic developments**](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_3.PDF "Driver 3 - Strategic foresight report: Short-term/cyclical economic developments") - [**Jobseekers’ preferences**](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_4.PDF "Driver 4 - Strategic foresight report: Jobseekers’ preferences") - [**Housing market and policy**](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_5_0.PDF "Driver 5 - Strategic foresight report: Housing market and policy") - [**Job quality and working conditions**](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_6.PDF "Driver 6 - Strategic foresight report: Job quality and working conditions") - [**Climate change and greening policies**](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_7.PDF "Driver 7 - Strategic foresight report: Climate change and greening") - [**Education and training gaps**](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_8.PDF "Driver 8 - Strategic foresight report: Education and training gaps") ## Potential future scenarios By combining hypotheses about the developments of each factor, the experts developed nine scenarios about how the future might look like. Decision-makers are encouraged to get inspiration from the scenarios when designing and planning their activities and consider what could be done to realise a potential positive future while avoiding a negative one. Click on the links below and find out the full ‘story’ of each scenario, including its expected impact on labour shortages and surpluses as well as on EURES services. The combinations between factors and scenarios offer more precise insights. ## Low-skilled workers falling behind in an adaptive labour market - **Employment and work aspects of technological advancements:** automation follows its existing trajectory - **Technology as matchmaker:** Dominance of PES services, supported by technological solutions - **Short-term/cyclical economic developments:** Coping with the aftermath - **Climate change and greening:** Ongoing adverse effects of climate change - **Jobseekers’ preferences:** Jobseekers’ adoption of employers’ preferences - **Job quality and working conditions:** Post-industrial Taylorism - **Education and training gaps:** Selective skills provision - **Housing market and policy:** Persistent unaffordability and unavailability of housing [Read more about this scenario](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_1.pdf "Scenario 1 - Strategic foresight report: Low-skilled workers falling behind in an adaptive labour market") ## Mismatches and inequalities in an active twin transition - **Employment and work aspects of technological advancements:** Automation follows its existing trajectory - **Technology as matchmaker:** Dominance of PES services, supported by technological solutions - **Short-term/cyclical economic developments:** Coping with the aftermath - **Climate change and greening:** Successful adaptation, failure in mitigation - **Jobseekers’ preferences:** Market adoption of jobseekers’ preferences - **Job quality and working conditions:** Post-industrial Taylorism - **Education and training gaps:** The skills agenda widely realised - **Housing market and policy:** Increased availability of housing [Read more about this scenario](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_2.pdf "Scenario 2 - Strategic foresight report: Mismatches and inequalities in an active twin transition") ## The EU looking for home and belonging - **Employment and work aspects of technological advancements:** Automation follows its existing trajectory - **Technology as matchmaker:** Dominance of PES services, supported by technological solutions - **Short-term/cyclical economic developments:** Coping with the aftermath - **Climate change and greening:** Successful adaptation, failure in mitigation - **Jobseekers’ preferences:** Market adoption of jobseekers’ preferences - **Job quality and working conditions:** Post-industrial Taylorism - **Education and training gaps:** The skills agenda widely realised - **Housing market and policy:** Increased availability of housing [Read more about this scenario](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SE_scenario_3.pdf "Scenario 3 - Strategic foresight report: The EU looking for home and belonging") ## The gloom and doom - **Employment and work aspects of technological advancements:** The diffusion of AI increases - **Technology as matchmaker:** Machine-dominated self-service provision - **Short-term/cyclical economic developments:** A continuous state of perma- and polycrisis - **Climate change and greening:** Ongoing adverse effects of climate change - **Jobseekers’ preferences:** Mismatch of employers’ and jobseekers’ preferences - **Job quality and working conditions:** Up-lift job quality and working conditions - **Education and training gaps:** Selective skills provision - **Housing market and policy:** Increased availability of housing [Read more about this scenario](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_4.pdf "Scenario 4 - Strategic foresight report: The gloom and doom") ## Stronger PES and EURES cooperation in an unpredictable environment - **Employment and work aspects of technological advancements:** The diffusion of AI increases - **Technology as matchmaker:** Dominance of PES services, supported by technological solutions - **Short-term/cyclical economic developments:** A continuous state of perma- and polycrisis - **Climate change and greening:** Successful adaptation, failure in mitigation - **Jobseekers’ preferences:** Mismatch of employers’ and jobseekers’ preferences - **Job quality and working conditions:** Post-industrial Taylorism - **Education and training gaps:** Slow and modest adaptation - **Housing market and policy:** Social housing policies and renovation wave [Read more about this scenario](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_5.pdf "Scenario 5 - Strategic foresight report: Stronger PES and EURES cooperation in an unpredictable environment") ## Labour market in times of crisis - **Employment and work aspects of technological advancements:** The diffusion of AI increases - **Technology as matchmaker:** Prominent role of private service providers - **Short-term/cyclical economic developments:** A continuous state of perma- and polycrisis - **Climate change and greening:** Successful adaptation, failure in mitigation - **Jobseekers’ preferences:** Mismatch of employers’ and jobseekers’ preferences - **Job quality and working conditions:** Up-lift job quality and working conditions - **Education and training gaps:** Slow and modest adaptation - **Housing market and policy:** Persistent unaffordability and unavailability of housing [Read more about this scenario](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_6.pdf "Scenario 6 - Strategic foresight report: Labour market in times of crisis") ## Digitalisation at its worst - **Employment and work aspects of technological advancements:** Increasing customisation of work of work and employment - **Technology as matchmaker:** Machine-dominated self-service provision - **Short-term/cyclical economic developments:** Coping with the aftermath - **Climate change and greening:** Successful adaptation, failure in mitigation - **Jobseekers’ preferences:** Jobseekers’ adoption of employers’ preferences - **Job quality and working conditions:** Post-industrial Taylorism - **Education and training gaps:** Slow and modest adaptation - **Housing market and policy:** Persistent unaffordability and unavailability of housing [Read more about this scenario](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_7.pdf "Scenario 7 - Strategic foresight report: Digitalisation at its worst") ## Proactive and effective policies - **Employment and work aspects of technological advancements:** Automation follows its existing trajectory - **Technology as matchmaker:** Dominance of PES services, supported by technological solutions - **Short-term/cyclical economic developments:** Coping with the aftermath - **Climate change and greening:** Climate policies and green transition - **Jobseekers’ preferences:** Jobseekers’ adoption of employers’ preferences - **Job quality and working conditions:** Up-lift job quality and working conditions - **Education and training gaps:** The skills agenda widely realised - **Housing market and policy:** Social housing policies and renovation wave [Read more about this scenario](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_8.pdf "Scenario 8 - Strategic foresight report: Proactive and effective policies") ## Ongoing crises: no satisfactory solution for the labour market - **Employment and work aspects of technological advancements:** The diffusion of AI increases - **Technology as matchmaker:** Prominent role of private service providers - **Short-term/cyclical economic developments:** A continuous state of perma- and polycrisis - **Climate change and greening:** Ongoing adverse effects of climate change Selective skills provision - **Jobseekers’ preferences:** Jobseekers’ adoption of employers’ preferences - **Job quality and working conditions:** Post-industrial Taylorism - **Education and training gaps:** Slow and modest adaptation - **Housing market and policy:** Persistent unaffordability and unavailability of housing [Read more about this scenario](/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_9.pdf "Scenario 9 - Strategic foresight report: Ongoing crises: no satisfactory solution for the labour market") ## Drivers Driver 1 - Strategic foresight report: Employment and work aspects of technological advancements *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (918.27 KB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_1.PDF) Driver 2 - Strategic foresight report: Technology as Matchmaker *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (5.36 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_2.PDF) Driver 3 - Strategic foresight report: Short-term/cyclical economic developments *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (3.98 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_3.PDF) Driver 4 - Strategic foresight report: Jobseekers’ preferences *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (6.52 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_4.PDF) Driver 5 - Strategic foresight report: Housing market and policy *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (7.45 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_5_0.PDF) Driver 6 - Strategic foresight report: Job quality and working conditions *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (6.2 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_6.PDF) Driver 7 - Strategic foresight report: Climate change and greening *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (10.95 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_7.PDF) Driver 8 - Strategic foresight report: Education and training gaps *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (5.99 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_driver_8.PDF) ## Scenarios Scenario 1 - Strategic foresight report: Low-skilled workers falling behind in an adaptive labour market *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (5.68 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_1.pdf) Scenario 2 - Strategic foresight report: Mismatches and inequalities in an active twin transition *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (8.2 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_2.pdf) Scenario 3 - Strategic foresight report: The EU looking for home and belonging *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (2.21 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SE_scenario_3.pdf) Scenario 4 - Strategic foresight report: The gloom and doom *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (6.7 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_4.pdf) Scenario 5 - Strategic foresight report: Stronger PES and EURES cooperation in an unpredictable environment *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (5.27 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_5.pdf) Scenario 6 - Strategic foresight report: Labour market in times of crisis *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (5.71 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_6.pdf) Scenario 7 - Strategic foresight report: Digitalisation at its worst *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (4.74 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_7.pdf) Scenario 8 - Strategic foresight report: Proactive and effective policies *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (6.16 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_8.pdf) Scenario 9 - Strategic foresight report: Ongoing crises: no satisfactory solution for the labour market *The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030* English (4.86 MB - PDF) [View](https://www.ela.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-06/SF_scenario_9.pdf)